Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 20.398866 24.543335 29.103466 34.465370 40.568494 47.270231 55.155959
2025-08-31 13.600349 18.804435 25.134742 33.279375 43.350035 55.261156 70.270964
2025-09-07 10.482794 16.182042 23.671487 33.967136 47.462728 64.250628 86.380610
2025-09-14 7.967703 13.641554 21.644924 33.309662 49.382051 70.231251 98.737670
2025-09-21 6.570112 12.319004 20.936217 34.120480 53.033430 78.392492 114.059721
2025-09-28 4.936031 10.250789 18.767232 32.488977 53.013919 81.475862 122.655477
2025-10-05 4.252789 9.586051 18.591550 33.684830 56.976161 90.078949 138.959571
2025-10-12 3.631446 8.887222 18.231113 34.495911 60.343103 97.927035 154.472112
2025-10-19 3.093701 8.221147 17.809667 35.117231 63.392425 105.387711 169.663643
2025-10-26 2.684398 7.717993 17.587961 36.006414 66.855731 113.546844 186.099335
2025-11-02 2.187900 6.901481 16.662844 35.574360 68.135770 118.445341 197.911686
2025-11-09 1.833790 6.317715 16.087401 35.670861 70.230846 124.609087 211.740701
2025-11-16 1.483130 5.673081 15.355375 35.525818 72.110823 130.837271 226.413313
2025-11-23 1.119073 4.864783 14.146864 34.363848 72.190607 134.282405 237.092761
2025-11-30 0.943348 4.535830 13.927129 35.072638 75.547861 143.069977 256.262163
2025-12-07 0.726611 3.979685 13.073561 34.398737 76.352009 147.699117 269.060162
2025-12-14 0.617745 3.748717 12.961333 35.230126 79.930407 157.018716 289.530675
2025-12-21 0.436906 3.135814 11.746908 33.557153 78.691922 158.174736 296.951233
2025-12-28 0.382113 3.024679 11.849650 34.783447 83.033033 168.958427 320.233309
2026-01-04 0.324101 2.864713 11.784456 35.615039 86.639950 178.589761 341.888081
2026-01-11 0.270421 2.691022 11.644419 36.251998 89.884781 187.688422 362.899686
2026-01-18 0.230400 2.564916 11.623350 37.163458 93.716990 197.935746 386.073621
2026-01-25 0.174537 2.289804 11.071296 36.720595 94.757134 203.240973 401.106661